Subj : TROPDISC: Atlantic Gale To : All From : Dumas Walker Date : Sat Mar 15 2025 08:32 am 720 AXNT20 KNHC 151016 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Sat Mar 15 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ....SPECIAL FEATURE... Atlantic Gale Warning: A low pres system is expected to develop in the central Atlantic beginning on Sun night. As the system intensifies, gale-force winds are expected on Mon across the northern semicircle of the low, mainly N of 26N between 49W and 52W. Rough to very rough seas are expected with these winds. The low will move NW through mid- week while weakening. ....MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Africa near 07N12W and continues southwestward to 01N26W. The ITCZ extends from 01N26W to 00N47W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from the Equator to 05N between 08W and 35W. ....GULF OF MEXICO... Low pressure is steadily building across the Gulf area. Latest scatterometer data indicate fresh to strong SE to S winds across the central Gulf. Gentle to moderate SE to S winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are 3 to 5 ft N of 22N and W of 85W. Seas of 1 to 3 ft are between the W coast of Florida and 85W, and in the Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, low pressure will continue to build across the basin ahead of the next front. Fresh to strong southerly winds will expand across the basin tonight ahead of the next frontal passage. The front will enter the NW Gulf this morning, then reach from the Florida Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche by Sun morning, and move E of the Gulf Mon morning. Near-gale force southerly winds will likely develop ahead of the front today and off Veracruz Sun. Looking ahead, high pressure will settle over the basin Mon through mid week. ....CARIBBEAN SEA... A ridge extends across the Bahamas and Cuba into the NW Caribbean while low pressure dominates most of the Gulf of Mexico. This pattern is allowing for fresh to strong E to SE winds over the Gulf of Honduras and the NW Caribbean mainly S of 18N and W of 85W. Similar wind speeds from the NE and E are noted offshore Colombia. Moderate NE winds are observed per scatterometer data in the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate trade winds dominate the remainder of the basin. Seas are 3 to 5 ft with the strongest winds, and 1 to 3 ft elsewhere. The proximity of a stationary front combined with an upper-level low is helping to induce some shower activity over Puerto Rico and regional waters as well as over the northern Leeward Islands. Elsewhere shallow moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow noted producing isolated to scttrd passing showers. For the forecast, high pressure over the NW Atlantic will build while it shifts SE to the central Atlantic waters. Fresh to strong winds will pulse at night offshore Colombia through early next week. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected in the Windward Passage and south of the Dominican Republic through the weekend. Fresh to strong SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras will expand to the remaining NW Caribbean W of 82W ahead of a cold front forecast to move across the Yucatan Channel into the NW basin Mon morning. Rough seas are expected with the strong winds preceding the front. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and moderate seas will be associated with the passage of the front, which is forecast to reach from eastern Cuba to NE Honduras by Tue morning, from the Windward Passage to NE Nicaragua Tue evening before dissipating late Wed. ....ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning in effect for the central Atlantic. A cold front enters the Atlantic forecast area near 31N31W and continues SW to near 23N46W, where it transitions into a stationary frontal boundary that extends to 21N64W. Scattered showers thunderstorms are noted ahead of the front N of 25N. An area of cloudiness, with embedded showers is within about 250 nm N of the stationary front between 52W and 60W. To the NW of the stationary front, a trough is analyzed from 28N67W to 23N65W. Some shower and thunderstorm activity is E of the trough. The pressure gradient between the trough and high pressure N of the forecast region supports an area of fresh to strong easterly winds from 23N to 29N between 55W and the trough axis. Mainly fresh winds are noted in the wake of the front with seas up to 15 ft. In the eastern Atlantic, a 1020 mb high pressure center is analyzed at 25N27W, extending a weak ridge across much of the remaining subtropical and tropical Atlantic. Moderate trade winds and moderate seas are noted across the tropical Atlantic except in the vicinity of the Cabo Verde Islands where moderate to fresh NE wind are occurring with seas of 6 to 8 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, the tail end of a stationary front is analyzed from 24N44W to 21N65W. Fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas to 9 ft are ongoing N of the front between 55W and 64W. The front will lift N through the weekend while weakening. High pressure over the NW Atlantic will build while it shifts SE to the central Atlantic waters through early next week. The pressure gradient between the associated ridge and the remnants of the aforementioned front will lead to the development of fresh to strong winds north of 22N and E of the Bahamas this weekend. These winds will support building rough seas across E of the Bahamas. Looking ahead, A low pres system will develop E of the area, with increasing winds to gale-force possible mainly N of 27N and E of 56W by Mon afternoon/night. To the W, a strong cold front will push off the SE United States coast early Mon preceded and followed by fresh to near-gale force winds. The front will reach from 31N68W to the Turks and Caicos and eastern Cuba Tue morning, and from Bermuda to Puerto Rico Wed morning. $$ ERA --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175) .