Subj : TROPDISC: Gale Warnings To : All From : Dumas Walker Date : Wed Mar 19 2025 08:30 am 568 AXNT20 KNHC 191039 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Wed Mar 19 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1025 UTC. ....SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: Complex low pressure system near Bermuda is producing gale force N to NW winds north of 27N between 69W and 74W, along the western side of the low's circulation. Building seas of 18-22 ft are within the area of gale force winds. Strong to near gale force cyclonic winds and rough to very rough seas are found over much of the SW North Atlantic. This area of low pressure will continue moving south to southeast today, supporting gale-force winds and very rough seas between Bermuda and the Bahamas through tonight. Peak seas are forecast to reach 23 ft later this morning, with the area of 12 ft or greater seas expanding to cover much of the western Atlantic offshore zones north of 20N. Winds and seas will gradually diminish across the region beginning Thu night as the low shifts northeastward and steadily weakens. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front is forecast to move off the Texas coast later this morning and quickly proceed eastward. Strong to near gale-force N winds will follow the front, except for gale-force NW-N winds off Veracruz Thu afternoon. Seas will build to 9 ft. Winds and seas will diminish Thu night. ....MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea- Bissau near 11N15W, continuing southwestward to 02N30W. The ITCZ extends from 02N30W to near the far northern coast of Brazil near 01N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed south of 05N. GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for information about the Gale Warning off Veracruz. A tight pressure gradient between high pressure over Florida and lower pressures over Texas and NE Mexico support fresh to strong southerly winds over much of the western Gulf of Mexico. Seas in these waters are 6-10 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, fresh to strong southerly winds and rough seas will continue through this morning across the western Gulf waters due to a tight pressure gradient. A cold front will move off the coast of Texas later this morning and travel quickly eastward. The front will reach from southern Alabama to Veracruz tonight, from Cape Coral to the Yucatan Peninsula Thu afternoon, and exit the basin Thu night into early Fri. The front will be followed by fresh to strong N winds and rough seas, except for minimal gales off Veracruz Thu afternoon. Winds and seas will diminish across the basin on Fri morning with high pressure establishing across the basin afterward. Fresh to strong E winds will develop off NW Yucatan and spread into the western Gulf waters Sat night into Sun morning. CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure over Florida supports fresh to strong northerly winds in the lee of Cuba, Windward Passage and off the Tiburon Peninsula of Haiti. Seas in these waters are 3-6 ft. Fresh to strong NE winds and moderate seas are noted off NW Colombia in the south-central Caribbean. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are evident in the rest of the basin. For the forecast, fresh to strong easterly trade winds will prevail through early next week in the central Caribbean. Building ridge north of the area will result in an increase in areal coverage of the winds Fri through the early next week. Gale-force winds will pulse offshore Colombia at night on Sat and Sun, along with rough to very rough seas. Fresh to near gale-force winds will prevail in the central and portions of the SW Caribbean during the weekend and through early next week. The aforementioned ridge will also sustain fresh to strong NE winds in the lee of Cuba and the Windward Passage through tonight. Looking ahead, the tail of a cold front will enter the NW Caribbean early Fri and dissipate Fri evening. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for information about the Atlantic Gale Warning in the SW North Atlantic. Outside of the Gale Warning area, seas 8 ft or greater are north of 20N between 46W and 80W. A cold front, associated in part with the gale force low, extends from 31N62W to 25N61W to 19N19W along the north coast of Hispaniola. Fresh to strong SW to S winds prevail to 43W and north of 22N. Weak 1007 mb low pressure analyzed near 30N57W should be absorbed by the gale force low pressure this morning. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures north of the area result in fresh to strong cyclonic winds and rough seas north of 27N and east of 35W. Moderate to fresh NE-E winds and moderate to rough seas prevail south of 22N between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast west of 55W, complex low pressure system located near Bermuda supports strong to gale-force W-NW winds and rough to very rough seas across the SW North Atlantic waters. The strongest winds and highest seas are found north of 27N and between 69W and 74W. The broad non-tropical system is forecast to make a counter-clockwise loop and turn north on Thu, moving away from our area. The strong to gale-force winds and rough to very rough seas will continue through tonight, then gradually diminish through Fri as the winds and seas slide eastward. Looking ahead, fresh to strong southerly winds will develop over the NE Florida offshore waters on Thu afternoon ahead of a strong cold front forecast to enter the NW offshore waters late Thu. Strong to near gale-force W-NW winds and rough to very rough seas will follow this front, which is forecast to reach from Bermuda to the central Bahamas late Fri. The front will move E of the area on Sat, allowing high pressure to build in and winds and seas to diminish. $$ Delgado --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175) .