Subj : TROPDISC: Gale Warnings To : All From : Dumas Walker Date : Thu Mar 20 2025 08:27 am 973 AXNT20 KNHC 201029 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Thu Mar 20 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1025 UTC. ....SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: A weakening, broad area of low pressure centered near Bermuda continues to produce strong to gale-force cyclonic winds over much of the SW North Atlantic, especially between 55W and 75W. These winds result in rough to very rough seas, peaking near 17 ft. A cold front is analyzed from 31N54W to 17N62W. Scattered moderate convection is observed north of 20N and between 49W and 60W. Winds and seas will gradually diminish as the system lifts N of the area later today. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A fast-moving cold front extends from SE Louisiana to near Tuxpan, Mexico. Marine observations indicate that fresh to near gale-force northerly winds are occurring behind the front. Gusts may occasionally reach gale force early this morning. The front is forecast to reach from Tampa, Florida to Veracruz, Mexico this afternoon. Brief minimal gales are expected off Veracruz with the passage of the front this afternoon. Rough to very rough seas are expected the strongest winds. Winds and seas will diminish in the SW Gulf tonight into Fri morning. SW Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a ridge north of the Caribbean and lower pressures in N Colombia will tighten leading to the development of pulsing gales at night over the offshore waters N of Colombia from Fri through Sun. Rough to very rough seas are expected with the strongest winds. Winds and seas will diminish by the middle of next week. ....MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea- Bissau near 12N16W, continuing southwestward to 04N23W. The ITCZ extends from 04N23W to 02S43W. Isolated showers are observed within 120 nm on both sides of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for information about the Gale Warning expected off Veracruz. A cold front extends from SE Louisiana to near Tuxpan, Mexico. A few showers are noted near the frontal boundary. Recent marine observations indicate that strong to near gale- force NW-N winds follow the frontal boundary, especially in the NW Gulf waters. Gusts may occasionally reach gale force this morning. Seas behind the frontal boundary are 7-10 ft. Fresh to strong NW winds and moderate seas are occurring off Veracruz. In the remainder of the basin, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, the front is forecast to reach from Tampa, Florida to Veracruz, Mexico Thu afternoon before it moves E of the basin early on Fri. Brief minimal gales are expected off Veracruz with the passage of the front Thu afternoon. Very rough seas are expected the strongest winds. Winds and seas will diminish across the basin Fri morning through Sat night as high pressure develops over the NE Gulf. A surface trough over the Yucatan Peninsula will move into the Bay of Campeche at night Fri through Sun, enhancing winds to fresh to strong speeds in the Peninsula adjacent waters. Looking ahead, the next cold front will come off Texas Sun night into Mon. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning expected over the waters off NW Colombia. A stationary front extends from the Leeward Islands to just north of the ABC islands. A few weak showers are seen near the boundary. The rest of the basin is dominated by a 1018 mb high pressure system centered near the NW Bahamas. Fresh to strong NE winds and moderate seas are occurring in the south-central Caribbean due to the pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in northern Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are found in the north-central and SE Caribbean, Windward Passage, lee of Cuba and Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas are prevalent. For the forecast, building ridge north of the area will sustain fresh to strong easterly trade winds over the central Caribbean through the forecast period. The pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressureS over N Colombia will result in near gale-force winds across the south-central waters Fri night through Mon night, with pulsing gales at night offshore Colombia Fri through Sun. Rough to very rough seas are expected with the strongest winds Fri night through the middle of next week. Looking ahead, the tail of a cold front will enter the NW Caribbean early Fri and dissipate Fri evening. The aforementioned building high pressure will result in fresh to strong NE winds resuming in the Windward Passage and the lee of Cuba Fri evening through Sun night, and east winds of the same speed at night in the Gulf of Honduras Sun and Mon. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for information about the Atlantic Gale Warning in the W Atlantic. The SW North Atlantic is dominated by the expansive low pressure system discussed in the Special Features, especially east of 75W. West of 75W, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are noted. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a narrow ridge centered well west of the Azores. The pressure gradient between this ridge and a strong low pressure east of Portugal result in moderate to locally strong W-NW winds north of 26N and east of 30W. Seas in these waters are 10-14 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and seas of 6-9 ft are found south of 21N and between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are evident. For the forecast west of 55W, a weakening, broad area of low pressure centered near Bermuda continues to produce strong to gale-force cyclonic winds over much of the SW North Atlantic, especially between 55W and 75W. These winds result in rough to very rough seas. Winds and seas will gradually diminish as the system lifts N of the area later today. Meanwhile, a cold front currently moving across the Gulf of Mexico will sustain fresh to strong southerly winds in the NE Florida offshore waters this afternoon. The strong front will enter the basin this evening and strong to near gale-force NW winds and rough to very rough seas will follow. The front is which is forecast to reach from 31N71W to Andros Island and W Cuba Fri morning, and from 31N57W to the southern Bahamas Sat morning where it stall before dissipating late Sat. High pressure will build NE to E of the Bahamas in the wake of the front the remainder weekend. Looking ahead, a weak cold front may enter the NW offshore waters Mon night. $$ Delgado --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175) .