Subj : DAY48: Severe Risk Update
To   : All
From : Dumas Walker
Date : Wed Mar 26 2025 08:01 am

ACUS48 KWNS 260906
SWOD48
SPC AC 260904

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0404 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025

Valid 291200Z - 031200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Medium-range models appear to be in reasonable agreement through Day
6 (Monday March 31), with respect to synoptic-scale features.
Divergence in solutions increases thereafter, particularly with the
strength/progression of the next trough moving across the western
CONUS and into the Plains.  As such, no risk areas will be
considered beyond Day 6/Monday.

Day 4/Saturday, a couple of small-scale vorticity maxima/short-wave
troughs are forecast to cross the central portion of the country,
ahead of the stronger system advancing across the West.  This
feature is forecast to reach the High Plains overnight, as a surface
low moves across the Kansas/Oklahoma vicinity.  Models continue to
indicate that capping will remain an issue, hindering convective
development in the warm sector ahead of the low (across the
Kansas/Oklahoma/western Missouri/western Arkansas area) at least
until after dark/overnight.  While some severe threat may evolve
with storms which should be slightly elevated for the most part,
risk does not appear sufficient to warrant inclusion of a 15% risk area.

Day 5/Sunday, more substantial cyclogenesis is expected, though
differences exist between the models in terms of timing/location of
the developing low -- and associated cold front.  Nonetheless,
substantial warm-sector destabilization is forecast to occur from
Missouri/Arkansas/eastern Texas eastward across the Mississippi
Valley during the day, and extending eastward across the
Midwest/Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.  This will support scattered
thunderstorm development, within an increasingly sheared
environment.  By early afternoon, severe/supercell storms are
expected, accompanied by the risk for very large hail, damaging
winds, and a few tornadoes.  Storms should spread southeast of the
Ohio and Mississippi Valleys overnight, accompanied by ongoing severe risk.

Day 6/Monday, risk will likely have shifted to near and east of the
Appalachians, and southward to the Gulf Coast area, as the surface
cold front advances.  Destabilization ahead of the front will
support continuation of severe risk given favorably strong flow
aloft, with storms reaching/moving off the Gulf and Atlantic Coasts
late in the period.

...Goss.. 03/26/2025

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)

.